After five rounds of the new league phase, GOAL estimates each team’s chances of winning the enlarged tournament this season.
At least now it’s becoming somewhat fascinating! Some well-known players could be eliminated or at the very least fail to place in the top eight with only three rounds of the bloated Champions League league phase left.
After losing to new clean-sheet kings Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain fell to 25th place, just outside the play-off spots. Even more startlingly, defending champions Real Madrid are only one spot ahead of the French champs. With Pep Guardiola’s team blowing a 3-0 lead in their match with Feyenoord at the Etihad, even the formidable Manchester City are having trouble.
Who is in a prime position to challenge for a trophy, and who still has a lot of work to do to advance to the knockout stage? Based on their performances, schedule, momentum, pedigree, and quality, GOAL rates each of the 36 teams below according to their likelihood of winning the tournament.
36. Slovan Bratislava ↔ Although they made it to the league phase after four rounds of qualifying, Slovan Bratislava is totally out of their league. They have given up 18 goals while losing all five of their games thus far.
To be fair, they were significantly better in Tuesday’s 3-2 home loss to AC Milan, and if it weren’t for even more appalling defending, they may have won the game. They still have games against Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich, so there’s a good chance they’ll end the league phase without a win. It’s also hard to imagine them winning at home against Stuttgart.
35 Young Boys↔
Young Boys, who lost 6-1 at home to a fantastic Atalanta on Tuesday night, appear to be up for the challenge. This was their fifth straight loss. Even if their remaining opponents, Stuttgart, Celtic, and Red Star Belgrade, aren’t exactly the hardest teams in the tournament, nine points from the final three matches might be enough to secure a play-off spot. In actuality, though, that looks beyond the Bern team.
34 Salzburg ✇️
Following a dismal start to the season in which Salzburg lost three straight games without scoring a goal, the Austrians gave themselves a new lease on life at De Kuip when they shocked Feyenoord. But at the BayArena, when they lost to Bayer Leverkusen 5-0, they were dragged back to reality.
Although Salzburg isn’t officially eliminated, they are in effect since they need seven points from their matches against PSG, Real Madrid, and Atletico Madrid, and they aren’t getting that.
33 RB Leipzig ✇️
Leipzig had great expectations of repeating their run to the round of 16 from the previous season, when they gave Real Madrid a serious fright before losing at Santiago Bernabeu. However, after five straight losses, the Red Bull-backed team is all but eliminated.
Although they played well against Liverpool and Inter and let up a goal in the 90th minute against Atletico Madrid, Marco Rose’s team has been a little unlucky lately. They lost 3-2 at home to a 10-man Juventus was terrible, and their surrender to Celtic was no different. Nevertheless, they should at least collect some points from their final games against Sporting, Sturm Graz, and Aston Villa.
32 Bologna ⬇️
30 Girona ⬇️
29 Sparta Prague ↔
28 Red Star Belgrade ⬆️
27 Shakhtar Donetsk ↔
26 Stuttgart ↔
25 Club Brugge ⬇️
24 Celtic ⬇️
23 Dinamo Zagreb ⬇️
22 Paris Saint-Germain ⬇️
Even by their extremely low standards, it would be absolutely amazing to miss out on the top 24 of a 32-team league phase, but Paris Saint-Germain has come to be associated with disastrous surrenders. However, it is now a clear possibility. PSG has now lost four straight games after starting with a very fortunate 1-0 victory against Champions League newcomers Girona. Tuesday’s 1-0 setback at Bayern puts them in the elimination zone with three games left.
Would you really bet on Enrique’s team to defeat City at Parc des in January, when Guardiola’s team should be back to their best? Enrique’s team should win in Salzburg on December 10. They’ll probably have to win in Stuttgart on the last matchday if they don’t.
21 Feyenoord ⬆️
20 Benfica ⬆️
19 PSV ⬆️
18 Brest ⬇️
17Lille ⬆️
16 Sporting CP ⬇️
15 Monaco
14 Aston Villa ↔
13 Juventus ⬇️
12 AC Milan ⬆️
11 Real Madrid ⬇️
For Real Madrid, things are getting worse. Kylian Mbappe’s addition to a double-winning squad is not working out as planned. On the contrary, Mbappe’s worth is being questioned, and coach Carlo Ancelotti is under increasing criticism for failing to bring out the best in the Frenchman.
In Wednesday’s 2-0 loss to Liverpool, Mbappe was terrible, and Madrid was completely outplayed. As a result, they are now in 24th place in the Champions League standings.Madrid needs to win as many games as possible against Atalanta, Salzburg, and Brest in order to have a chance of finishing in the top eight, since they currently have just six points from their five games. They will have a very difficult time bringing home all three points from their forthcoming trip to Bergamo given their present performance.
Even though Madrid is an expert at finding a way to win, they don’t now appear to be contenders for the title.
10 Manchester City ⬇️
What the devil is happening at the Etihad? With a 3-0 lead over Feyenoord on Tuesday, Manchester City appeared certain to return to winning ways following the shock of losing five straight games across all competitions. But after a historically disastrous collapse, the 2023 winners ended up drawing the match, leaving Pep Guardiola openly scratching his head.
Given that the ‘Swiss Model’ is lenient and that they still have eight points, City is clearly in a better position to turn things around in the Champions League than the Premier League, but their current circumstances are far from ideal.To have a chance of placing in the top eight, the English champions must now win every game they have left, and even then, they probably won’t advance straight to the round of 16.
Their next two games are away to Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus, which will make things even more difficult. Without a doubt, City will be sent to the play-off round if they don’t get their act together quickly. This would mean two more games for a team that already appears to be near breaking point.
9 Atletico Madrid ⬆️
8 Bayer Leverkusen ↔
7 Bayern Munich ↔
6 Borussia Dortmund ⬆️
5 Atalanta ⬆️
4 Arsenal ⬆️
What a coincidence: both Arsenal and the fully recovered Martin Odegaard appear back to their best. Unsurprisingly, the return of the Norwegian playmaker to the starting lineup has boosted everyone around him as the Gunners suffered while their creative leader was injured.
Odegaard was outstanding in Arsenal’s spectacular 5-1 thumping of Sporting CP in Lisbon, demonstrating that Mikel Arteta’s team can win crucial Champions League away games. Now that they have accumulated 10 points and have back-to-back home games against Monaco and Dinamo Zagreb to look forward to, the north London team is poised to finish in the top eight.
3 Inter ↔
Is Inter the most difficult side to play against in the Champions League? The incredibly well-trained team managed by Simone Inzaghi made it to the final in 2023 and appears more than capable of doing so again. Since Inter is undefeated in the competition after five rounds and, more importantly, has not given up a goal despite playing both Manchester City and Arsenal, no one will want to play them in the knockout stage, that much is certain.
Although Lautaro Martinez’s recent slump in form is concerning as the Nerazzurri have only managed seven goals, the Argentine and his attackers should have plenty of time to improve.Inter’s next game is against Leverkusen, but even if their outstanding defense is breached at the BayArena and they lose or draw, the Nerazzurri should still finish in the top eight before home against Monaco, as they travel to Prague to play struggling Sparta on matchday seven.
2 Barcelona ↔
With Barcelona, nothing is ever taken for granted. There is always a chance of a spectacular collapse. However, with Hansi Flick doing a fantastic job of reviving Robert Lewandowski, who is also scoring freely again because to the genius of Raphinha and Lamine Yamal alongside him, the Catalans are currently unquestionably one of the most scary teams in international football.
In fact, Tuesday’s 3-0 victory over Brest made the prolific Pole just the third centurion in Champions League history. This season, he has scored 22 goals in 19 games across all competitions, which is impressive for a 36-year-old! After overcoming their shocking matchday one defeat against Monaco (with ten men, it should be noted), they have won four straight games.
1 Liverpool ↔
At this point, Liverpool cannot be stopped. Having won all five of their European games so far, the Premier League leaders are also leading the Champions League. Wednesday’s 2-0 victory against Real Madrid was even more spectacular than the Reds’ 4-0 thumping of Bayer Leverkusen.
Arne Slot’s team easily defeated the defending champions, who were rendered to appear incredibly unimpressive by a team with an impressive depth of strength.
Even if Liverpool’s current record of 17 victories from 19 games across all competitions is clearly unsustainable, if you only consider their chances of winning the Champions League, they couldn’t be in a better position because they’re now practically certain to finish in the final eight, thus they should get a to rest their key men during the winter months.
